I just can’t stop thinking about Iran

The instinct is to engage in direct head to head combat, when I just don’t think that’s ever the best choice. Not unless you are in immediate danger, in which case you have no choice. But when it comes to perceived threat, ahem, Iran, I think it’s just foolish. Surely there was a concession (or concessions) that could have been made by the U.S. to neutralize Iran without jeopardizing our security.

Why would Iran, a country with a fraction of the military power of the U.S., want anything other than peace with the U.S.? Iran spends $10 billion annually on its military. The U.S. spends $1 trillion. The U.S. has 3.5 times more infantrymen, and 13 times more fighter jets. The U.S. holds the second largest nuclear arsenal, behind only Russia, in the world. Iran maybe has enriched uranium. Why would Iran want war with the U.S.? They wouldn’t.

Part of the narrative is the insistence that the people of Iran hate Americans. Perhaps they hate our government, or their government hates our government, the way we sometimes hate our government or the way our government hates other governments. But watching these two clips of Anthony Bourdain and Rick Steves talking about their respective visits to Iran, shows me that we all have a lot more in common than we’re led to believe, and that the narrative around Iran and it’s people is simply not true. A compelling argument for selling a war, but fictitious nonetheless.

The leaders of Iran are not stupid. They know the devastation that would rain down on them if they ever truly posed an immediate threat. A few months ago we destroyed their nuclear capabilities. A few months before that the security assessment said they didn’t pose a threat. Regardless, they’ve been on the receiving end of that devastation for decades through sanctions, and through force for over a month, unprovoked. Imagine if they did attack first or were a threat? They can, which is why they don’t and aren’t. They couldn’t afford to, and they know it.

Look at what’s happened since being attacked. The response by Iran is not one of a country who posed an immediate threat, or any threat at all. It’s been muted, tranquil in its effectiveness compared to what the U.S. and Israel have been able to do. The only thing that has gained any attention of the aggressors has been closing the Strait of Hormuz, as it threatens global energy supply and prices.

So I just think it’s important to recognize the reality of the situation, and to call it for what it is. A second attempt at installing a pro-U.S. leader. The first attempt being in the CIA backed coup of 1953, which successfully overthrew Iran’s democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, and installed the pro-America Shah, which led to decades of repression by the U.S. backed government against the Iranian people. And more importantly, unlike the government of Mohammad Mossadegh, allowed U.S. and British companies access to Iran’s oil.

Donald Trump thought he could pull off another Venezuela. Cut off the head and the rest fall in line. But he misunderstood who he was dealing with. Iran is not Venezuela. Iran would rather die than be controlled by the U.S. again. The Islamic Revolution in 1979 which toppled the Shah, and led to the Islamic Republic that we are now adamant about toppling, is a direct result of of U.S. meddling and repression at the hands of its installed government.

We’re watching the same story unfold all over again. And the people of Iran remember this, even if we don’t, which is why we find ourselves at a stalemate. Having rained “Epic Fury” down upon a country for no fucking reason, killing thousands, spending billions for destruction that could be spent on progress, and stuck in another war with no off-ramp.